The major foreign policy paradigm shifts of Turkey’s region are as follows. These doctrine and geography based incidents and possibilities require a new way of looking at changing dynamics around Turkey. The short-sighted inward and reactive policies need to be carefully re-assessed in order to align with the 2023 targets.
1-US new strategic doctrine: The newly invented technologies on horizontal drilling and shale gas potential; the increase in oil production capabilities; the changing dynamics in APAC region, mainly China-Japan-Russia-India; the lesser need of Middle East economies’ the one-and-only importance for global politics; the end of baby-boomers generation in the USA and re-structuring of economies production capacity and balance; Latin America’s re-emerging importance for US that was postponed due to 9/11.
2-Russia’s changing policies under Putin’s management: Russia turning her face towards Asia and China sea region as can be tracked on naval activities; Russia’s state budget now followed and pushed for except-energy balances due to restructural need for change on its dynamics.
3-India‘s nonalignment act and nuclear relation with US; China‘s new leadership, enormous fx reserves and military spending, ageing labor force; Japan‘s re-alignment with US and her new conservative premiership; Australia‘s&Indonesia‘s natural resources.
4-The ageing of European population, indebtness with a lost decade and a shining star sub-saharan Africa.
Under these highlights mea culpa if any, the main questions are;
a-How will the balace of power be sustained in Middle East? How long will the oil capacity of nations be effective in global politics?
b-Turkey’s NATO and US dependency are still reliable?
c-How far the Iran’s sphere of influence will clash with Israel’s uttermost need for fractured nations in Middle East?
Any point missed and/or ignored about European Union that i failed to catch in terms of Turkey’s and global future in this decade?